It’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, but this event unfolded with such velocity that it has left historical assumptions gasping for air. It’s the kind of moment that rewrites narratives and redraws maps—think the fall of the Tsar in 1917 or the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989. In events like these, there are always winners and losers, and in this case, the biggest losers are Russia, Iran, and their proxy Hezbollah. The winners—at least for now—appear to be Turkey, Qatar, and Israel.

For Israel, this looks like a short-term gain. It could accelerate the resolution of the current conflict in Gaza, perhaps even leading to territorial expansion. But the long-term risks are harder to ignore. History has a way of taking small sparks and igniting ideological wildfires, and what emerges from the ashes of Syria could take on the momentum of something like the French Revolution. The fervor could spread—first to Iraq, then into Jordan, and onto Egypt—reshaping the region in ways that threaten both Israel and the Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This has all the makings of an Arab Spring 2.0. And here’s the rub: with a Trump presidency, the United States will likely stay on the sidelines, treating its alliances less as commitments and more as assets to be monetized. That won’t go well, particularly in a region that requires strategic ballast. Trump, after all, is no fan of the Project for a New American Century. His playbook is different, and the region’s next chapter could be written without Washington at the table.